By James Paterson.

For the past 15 years, Lionel Messi has been the best player in the world. Yet now, at the age of 37, his abilities are waning. Languishing in the MLS, a league considerably below his high standards, the question has to be asked if his career should be nearing its end. 

Do the statistics support Messi’s retirement? Messi has put up phenomenal numbers in his career, including scoring a record 91 goals in a year. Looking at his past few years, in 2022 he had 35 goals and 30 assists in 51 games, in 2023 he had 28 goals and 12 assists in 44 games, and in 2024 he has 19 goals and 14 assists in 25 games. His ratio of goals and assists per game is clearly not changing much: he is still a top-quality player. However, he has arguably been outshone by Luis Suarez at Inter Miami this season and his output in the MLS is similar to how it was in Ligue Un despite the gap in class. But clearly, he is still a valuable player for his team and is still proving his class when he plays, meaning he would not be forced to retire due to his statistics and performance. 

A key factor is the desire that Messi has to keep playing. He is the most decorated player in history having won 44 trophies. He has won the World Cup, the Champions League, and two Copa Americas. With nothing else to win, should he retire now he would have no regrets. But there is the obvious money component. Playing for Inter Miami, Messi earns around $50 million per year in wages. In addition to this, he earns a cut of the revenue from subscribers to the Apple TV MLS pass, signifying his importance to the American League. Retirement would lose him this lucrative deal. Of course, he is extremely rich already with a net worth of around $850 million, and so he doesn’t necessarily need much more money. But he is earning more than he ever has before in his career at this moment and this could be the last great pay day of his career, it would be entirely reasonable for him to keep playing simply because of this. 

So, with the stats supporting the continuation of his career, and the money incentivising it, what is stopping Messi from playing for the next 5 years? Injuries could be a concern. After playing over 1000 games, and entering his late 30’s, his body may be starting to feel the strain of what he has put it through. As a player primarily relying on pace and dribbling in his prime, he was hacked at and kicked at and fouled many times, which may have caused long term damage to his body. At the last Copa America, Messi suffered a bad ankle injury in the final that put him on the sidelines for months. Another injury like this could spell the end of his career, as the older a player is the harder it is for them to recover from something like that. Take Neymar’s ACL injury for example. And finally, Messi may just want to retire to simply spend time with his family. He is a humble man not obsessed with records or scoring as many goals as he can in his career, and so he will retire when he feels it is right for him and his family.  

Obviously, it is hard to predict when Messi will retire, but there are a few likely options. His contract at Inter Miami ends in 2025, and it is undecided if it will be extended. If not, he may simply choose to retire as no other club would be willing or able to pay him as much money as Miami (Without him having to move to Saudi Arabia), and so he loses the financial incentive to keep going. Or the 2026 World Cup may be the right time. He would have one last throw of the dice to try and win the greatest trophy in the world again, and to have the send-off he deserves. It would be a magical moment. 2025 or 2026 seem like the most likely years in which he could retire, but ultimately it is up to him to know when his body and his family tell him to stop, which is a decision every player has to make.