By Arya Khorshidi

Since 2016, we have seen the birth of the “populist” right, manifested in Brexit and the character of Donald Trump.

These political shifts have fundamentally transformed British and American politics, introducing economic protectionism and controversial rhetoric on the need to combat illegal immigration. Another consequence has been the polarisation between left and right, exacerbated by Trump’s immensely divisive first term as president, and the overwhelming division culminating in the January 6^th Riots against standard U.S electoral processes.

With this new “right-wing populism” becoming the norm in many Western governments, much vitriol has been directed towards what is known as the “establishment” or the “swamp”. This group consists of traditional Republicans and Democrats from the late 1990s or early 2000s who hold more moderate beliefs, such as a small non-interfering government, and desire to allow a globalised economy. Many of them, including Trump’s own former Vice President Mike Pence, had also supported regime change efforts in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, which Trump’s base vehemently opposes, describing them as “forever wars”.  Figures like Trump have denounced this principled group as traitors to American values, and figures with shady, unreliable donors.

The Overton Window, essentially the range of political ideas which we consider normal and fair, has shifted further to the right as a result. The Democratic Party, in response, had decided to shift their messaging to the centre during the 2020 and 2024 election cycles, desperate to appeal to more traditional conservatives who felt alienated and unenthusiastic to support a hard-right Christian nationalist like Trump.

This culminated in Kamala Harris’ presidential run which demonstrated the complete failure of this technique, and has indirectly paved the way for the rise of the progressive left.

During the campaign, the Democrats desperately platformed anti-Trump establishment Republicans, including figures like Liz Cheney, daughter of the Vice President who enthusiastically supported the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with many others. Harris also assured the American public that she would be a President for all Americans, emphasising American defence, and her steadfast support for Ukraine and Israel, encouraging voters to “choose country over party”.

Trump won by a landslide.

Progressive Democrats, despite their ringleaders AOC and Bernie Sanders endorsing Harris, felt alienated by her approach of appealing to centre-right voters rather than tailoring her campaign to the affordability crisis and cost of living, with a few even voting for Trump, who spoke far more often about the economy and the need to prioritise every-day Americans.

Trump, however, has not really kept to these promises. His second term has been characterised by trade disputes with numerous countries, as well as various foreign policy achievements which seem to take precedence over domestic ones, such as the Israel-Hamas peace plan, and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. His signature piece of domestic legislation so far, the Big Beautiful Bill, has cut off access to Medicare for hundreds of thousands of Americans and has extended the Trump tax cuts, which favour the upper middle class.

This has devastated and enraged the progressive left, who desired much-needed action to address affordability, prices, and support for foreign countries like Israel, which they accuse of “genocide”. Ironically, the hard-right that had fully embraced Trump’s populist messaging has adopted similar critiques, with Nazi-sympathisers like Nick Fuentes calling Trump an “Israel First Traitor”.

The Democratic Party, currently controlled by establishment figures like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, have attempted to calm the growing anger at their centrist leanings, to no avail.

It seemed that progressives desperate for change had no other choice than to choose the classic “lesser of two evils”; until the mayoral campaign of Zohran Mamdani.

Mamdani, a former state assemblyman, ran in the New York Democratic Primary as a self-described “democratic socialist” against various establishment figures such as Andrew Cuomo, former Governor of New York, and Eric Adams, the current Mayor at the time.

He emphasised an “affordability-first” city focusing on appealing to alienated Muslim and Jewish New Yorkers, lowering the cost of living and food prices, ironically mimicking some of Trump’s own campaign promises. He also denounced the State of Israel, condemning their actions in Gaza with disdain and anger, a major break from the Democratic establishment, which had previously supported Israel exuberantly.

Despite polling at only 1% at the beginning of the primary, he managed to beat the unenthusiastic and lacklustre frontrunner Cuomo, going on to become the first Muslim and second democratic socialist Mayor-elect of New York City.

This has fundamentally shifted the American political landscape. Democrats in the upper echelons of leadership have been frightened and unsure of how to navigate a progressive like Mamdani winning by a clear majority, particularly when the same individuals who voted for him are demanding the entire Democratic Party adopt the principles that Mamdani ran on.

Although House Majority Leader Jeffries has insisted that Mamdani’s values don’t reflect the Democratic establishment, it remains to be seen if the party will eventually be forced to yield to the growing pressure from its own disgruntled base, which will lead to a completely new Democratic Party, a populist, and changed one.