With the ending of the 2026 World Cup group stage, we are watching one of the most intense golden boot races. With Lionel Messi having 6 goals, followed by a 4-way tie between Haaland, Vinicius Jr, Mbappé, and Dembele on 4, the race is extremely tight. However, the list cannot simply be these top 5, as not only can this list change in a few days, but how far each of the players’ teams goes also has a massive impact on their goalscoring numbers. This was shown in the 2022 final, as Mbappé scored a hat trick to win the golden boot, as he was given an extra game than most of his competition as France played all the possible games. So, this list will take into account the already existing top 5 and other players, and the outside factors potentially affecting their numbers.

1.    Lionel Messi: The greatest player in history is still dominating the stage in his 5th world cup. He already has 6 goals, and has an extremely easy route to the final, with him facing (most likely) Brazil or England in the semi final, both of which Argentina would be the favourite. He is also the penalty taker for Argentina and therefore is given a lot of easy chances to score. This doesn’t mean that these penalties are easy- he has missed the greatest number of penalties in world cup history – but give him a higher number of opportunities for scoring.

2.    Kylian Mbappé: The reigning golden boot winner is currently 2 goals behind Messi, and while critics might say that it isn’t possible for him to catch up to such a prolific attacker, France have a star studded team with him as their captain and talisman. If they can win their likely round of 16 tie against Germany, they have an extremely high chance of making the final as the other teams on that side of the bracket aren’t on the same level as this France side. Therefore, Mbappé has a high chance of playing the maximum games and scoring a lot of goals.

3.    Vinicius Junior: The Brazilian winger has finally stepped up for his country and is proving to be a clear successor to Neymar, who has scored the most goals ever for his country. The left winger already has 4 goals, and if Brazil can beat England and Argentina, Vinicius has a high chance of scoring the most goals, as he’s already being heavily depended on. Furthermore, he will have to face 2 of the competition on the way, meaning if he is successful, he has a great chance of winning as the other players won’t be scoring any more goals.

4.    Harry Kane: The 2018 golden boot winner already has 3 goals in the world cup so far, and as was shown in the 2018 campaign, he can step up for England, even if he hasn’t done so in recent times. He has scored the second most goals ever in a single season so far, and this excellent form has carried over to the world cup. If England are able to make it deep into the tournament, his chances of success are extremely high. He would also likely play against (and if successful, eliminate) Messi in the Semi finals, giving him a good chance to take out the lead of the competition and play an extra game in the final, where he could clinch the golden boot.  

5. Ousmane Dembele: The Ballon d’or holder didn’t have the best start to the tournament, however he rectified this by scoring an electric hat trick. The same idea that applies to Mbappé about team success being the frontrunner for high chances of success applies here, however with Mbappé occupying the centre of the pitch, there is a lot less of a chance for the winger to score. Mbappé is also on penalties, taking away a great way for others to scare and furthering his chances of individual success.