On the 7^th of May 2026, the Labour Party suffered a catastrophic defeat across both the English local council elections and the Scottish and Welsh (Senedd) parliament elections. It has sparked major divisions within the Party in which two factions have emerged – those who think Keir Starmer should resign and those who think he should stay on as Prime minister. But why do these elections matter and who is likely to replace Starmer if a contest for leadership begins?

The elections on the 7^th of May were of great significance, not only because it reduced the control the Labour party had over a large portion of the nation, handing most of it over to Reform UK, but also because they acted as a show of political protest against Starmer’s government. In England, Labour lost 1,496 local council seats, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform party gained 1,453. This is significant because it reveals a disconnect between voters and the government, suggesting that there is a complete lack of trust in Starmer, which is why there are calls for him to resign. Furthermore, Labour lost control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time in over one hundred years, replaced by the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru who campaign for independence. This shows us how united Britain is against the Labour government, so much so that even some of Labour’s most loyal strongholds have now turned elsewhere politically.

Many voters have criticised Starmer for failing to deliver the change that Labour promised during the 2024 general election campaign. Rising living costs, pressure on public services and growing concerns over immigration have all contributed to frustration amongst the public. Reform UK successfully capitalised on this anger by presenting themselves as an anti-establishment alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives, although they have also been heavily criticised for the influx of ex Tory MP’s and failed politicians. At the same time, the Greens and Plaid Cymru benefited from younger and more progressive voters who believed Labour had become too cautious and centrist.

The results matter because local and devolved elections are often seen as a reflection of national political opinion. While they do not directly determine who forms the UK government, they can heavily influence public confidence in a Prime Minister, which is why there are calls for the resignation of Starmer. Historically, poor local election results have often preceded leadership challenges or even changes in government. Therefore, Labour MPs who fear losing their seats at the next general election may begin to pressure Starmer into resigning to save the party’s popularity before it is too late.

If a leadership contest were to begin, several high-profile figures are already being discussed as possible replacements. Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is viewed by many on the left of the party as the natural successor due to her popularity amongst Labour members and trade unions. Others believe Wes Streeting could emerge as a candidate because of his media profile and reputation as a reformer, who aligns quite closely with Starmer – meaning that he could pick up where Starmer leaves off. Meanwhile, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has also been mentioned frequently, with supporters arguing that he has stronger connections to traditional working-class voters who have shifted towards Reform UK, making him a strong candidate for preventing further losses to the right wing. He has now been allowed to run in the Makerfield by-election which, if he wins and re-enters parliament, would allow him to contest the leadership and subsequently become Prime Minister.

Ultimately, the 2026 elections may prove to be a turning point in modern British politics. They have exposed deep divisions within Labour and demonstrated how rapidly voter loyalty can change when governments fail to meet public expectations.